Cases rapidly spread, initially mainly in China during January, but quickly expanding to South Korea, Japan, Europe (mainly Italy, France and Spain) and the United States between late January and mid-February, before reaching global proportions by the time the pandemic was declared 9. The emergence of COVID-19 was first identified on 30 December 2019 8 and declared a global pandemic by the World Health Organization on 11 March 2020. Renewable energy production was expanding rapidly amid plummeting prices 5, but much of the renewable energy was being deployed alongside fossil energy and did not replace it 6, while emissions from surface transport continued to rise 3, 7.

Government actions and economic incentives postcrisis will likely influence the global CO 2 emissions path for decades.īefore the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020, emissions of carbon dioxide were rising by about 1% per year over the previous decade 1, 2, 3, with no growth in 2019 3, 4 (see Methods). The impact on 2020 annual emissions depends on the duration of the confinement, with a low estimate of –4% (–2 to –7%) if prepandemic conditions return by mid-June, and a high estimate of –7% (–3 to –13%) if some restrictions remain worldwide until the end of 2020. At their peak, emissions in individual countries decreased by –26% on average. Daily global CO 2 emissions decreased by –17% (–11 to –25% for ☑ σ) by early April 2020 compared with the mean 2019 levels, just under half from changes in surface transport.

Here we compile government policies and activity data to estimate the decrease in CO 2 emissions during forced confinements. Many international borders were closed and populations were confined to their homes, which reduced transport and changed consumption patterns. Government policies during the COVID-19 pandemic have drastically altered patterns of energy demand around the world.

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